Throughout 2023, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) and Sen. Steve Daines (Mont.), the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, had a consistent message for donors, the media and their fellow senators: This cycle would be different.
A key part of the strategy was to recruit wealthy, self-funding candidates, who could put in their own cash to make up for a persistent Democratic edge in small-dollar fundraising. Undergirding it all was a belief the party needed to do relatively little to defend its incumbents in Texas and Florida, never mind any states a degree or two redder.
But the self-funders’ opposition research files have created headaches their money may not be able to solve. Meanwhile, leaders’ efforts to put blue states in play appear far-fetched [and] GOP incumbents feel neglected.
“The [NRSC leadership] talked a big game when they came into these jobs,” a second veteran Republican strategist said, also requesting anonymity to speak frankly about internal divides. “They’re leaving seats on the table.”
Small-dollar donors giving through ActBlue have consistently kept Democratic coffers full, while Republicans have struggled to establish similar programs. This meant the GOP is more reliant on super PACs, which get far less advertising value for their dollar.
The NRSC’s solution to this recurring problem? Find candidates who can fund their own campaigns.
But personal wealth hasn’t actually done much to close the candidate cash gap with Democrats.
Meanwhile, the NRSC has engaged in coordinated spending with almost all of these candidates.
And the self-funders’ wealth has come attached to major weaknesses Democrats have sought to exploit. Hovde, Sheehy and McCormick have faced questions about their ties to their state; Hovde’s bank did business with a Mexican bank accused of links to drug cartels; McCormick’s hedge fund bet against Pennsylvania-based companies; Moreno faces accusations he shredded documents to hide wage theft at a car dealership he owned […] Sheehy […] faces accusations he lied about being shot in Afghanistan.
“Senate Republicans’ bad candidates and flawed recruiting strategy are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map,” said David Bergstein, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “It turns out the NRSC’s plan to tap a bunch of scandal-ridden, carpetbagging liars isn’t panning out how they hoped.”
But while the committee focused mostly on its new faces, its incumbents were not exactly cruising to victories. Polls in Florida and Texas have shown Democratic challengers within the margin of error of GOP incumbents.
Cruz has taken his complaints about a lack of support from outside groups public, blaming it on McConnell’s purported dislike of him.
There is also a sense the party’s outside groups are not spending their money efficiently.
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