VULNERABLE INCUMBENT ALERT: PORTMAN – WHO VOTED FOR FAST-TRACK – NOW SAYS HE’S AGAINST TPP.Six months ago, Senator Rob Portman voted to fast-track the trade agreement that he suddenly opposes, and before that, he declared his support for the agreement on film. In addition to fast-track, Portman has voted for EIGHT free trade deals and earned the titles “free-trade disciple” and “dedicated outsourcer” – so one stunning flip-flop won’t change the record he’s running from. It’s a transparently political move and has been reported as such:
Cincinnati Enquirer: Portman, in surprise, to oppose trade deal
It’s a surprise move from the Ohio Republican, who served as the chief trade negotiator for President George W. Bush and who supported the North American Free Trade Agreement and a series of subsequent trade deals…
As Bush’s trade representative, Portman helped negotiate such free trade agreements, and he notched a big win in 2005 when Congress passed the Central American Free Trade Agreement, a priority for the Bush administration.
Toledo Blade: The Blade
Last May, Mr. Portman voted with the majority to grant President Obama fast-track negotiating authority, the power to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Under “fast-track” trade promotion authority, Congress cannot change the deal and can pass it with only a simple majority.
Washington Post: Daily 202
Just how worried are Republicans about losing the Senate? ROB PORTMAN, who was the top U.S. trade official under President George W. Bush, has come out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership! Private polling shows that the agreement has become toxic back in Ohio, which has seen a steep decline in manufacturing, and the senator has looked increasingly vulnerable to a challenge from former Gov. Ted Strickland.
More here, here, here, here AND here.
HASSAN’S BLOCKBUSTER STATE OF THE STATE – “NH is strong and getting stronger.” New Hampshire’s got the lowest unemployment rate in 15 years, a $62 million surplus and expansion of substance abuse treatment programs – but Governor Hassan’s not stopping there: she’s moving on a new jobs-training program and to reauthorize Medicaid expansion this legislative session.
Portsmouth Herald: NH is strong and getting stronger
By any objective measure New Hampshire and the vast majority of its citizens are doing better today than they were when Gov. Maggie Hassan took office on Jan. 3, 2013….
The governor highlighted a number of initiatives to increase the education and training of men and women in the state…
This same spirit of bipartisanship is helping to advance legislation aimed at continuing Medicaid expansion after the current authorization expires at the end of this year. This is good news for the thousands of previously uninsured New Hampshire residents who now have health insurance, as well as for hospitals and businesses that had to pay for the treatment of the uninsured either directly or through premium increases.
You can read more coverage of Governor Hassan’s State of the State here, here, here and here.
MEANWHILE, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Kelly Ayotte Has a Donald Trump Problem.
Therein lies Ayotte’s problem. To win in November, the junior senator will have to attract conservative, anti-establishment Republicans to her cause while holding on to moderates like Cervantes who are turned off by Trump and Ted Cruz, who won the Iowa caucus. “It’s not like Passover, where the voters say, ‘Oh, these are the good Republicans that we’re meant to spare,’ ” says Fergus Cullen, a former state GOP chairman from 2007 to 2008, who recently endorsed Kasich. “They kill them all.”
….That hasn’t endeared her to some of her party’s voters. Inside the turreted Nashua hotel where Trump hosted a rally on Jan. 29, Colleen King contrasted Ayotte’s vote for immigration reform with Trump’s anti-immigrant stance. “His whole position is what is the best for America, to get America back to not being the sugar daddy for the world,” said King, a 60-year-old wearing a red-and-white MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN scarf. “I think she’s like a piece of wet spaghetti. She flip-flops.”
THE MAJORITY CAN’T EVEN WORK TO HELP FLINT. Mitch McConnell loves to say that his majority is working, but this week, Republicans could not put aside partisanship long enough to provide desperately needed aid to the people of Flint. Not only did the McConnell-led GOP walk away from a bipartisan, good faith effort to do the right thing this week, but McConnell affirmed that he doesn’t have plans for any major legislation in 2016.
Vox: Mitch McConnell just announced the Senate might not take up any substantive legislation in 2016
So, for example, that bipartisan criminal justice reform bill that looked so promising, the one Republicans and Democrats hadworked so hard on to reach a compromise. Yeah, the Senate won’t be voting on that. Or the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Or the Authorization for Use of Military Force. Or really anything. Because why force anybody to take tough votes?
The Hill: McConnell wary of divisive 2016 fights
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), seeking to protect his majority in a tough cycle for Republicans, is leaning toward holding back several measures that have bipartisan support but are divisive in his conference.
BONUS: Guess who agrees that the Republican majority is NOT working? Former GOP Senator Rick Santorum.
KANDER PROTECTS MISSOURI SENIORS, BLUNT PROTECTS SON’S CORPORATE INTEREST CLIENTS. While Jason Kander focused on protecting Missouri seniors from scams, Senator Roy Blunt made more headlines for yet another conflict of interest at the heart of his reelection campaign. The headline and lede speak for themselves:
KTVO: Sen. Blunt faces heat for backing cable companies son represents
The outside employment of Sen. Roy Blunt’s son and campaign manager is continuing to cause controversy after the Senator wrote a letter to the FCC supporting cable companies his son represents.
RAND’S TOUGH ROAD TO SENATE REELECTION. National Republicans had to beg Rand Paul to drop his longshot presidential campaign – calling his duel effort to keep his senate seat “really embarrassing.” It took a fifth place finish in Iowa for Rand to call it quits, but the damage to his reputation in Kentucky and his campaign resources (Politico reports today he’s got about $1.2M on hand) have been done.
Washington Post: Why Rand Paul’s Senate reelection is not a lock
In the waning day of Paul’s presidential campaign, Democrats found a high-profile candidate: Jim Gray, mayor of Lexington.
Now, as Paul ends his presidential run and turns his eyes back toward Kentucky, his reelection appears to be no sure thing.
“I do think that enough of the Kentucky electorate is up in the air that Rand Paul cannot assume that he can regain his Senate seat,” said Stephen Voss, a political science professor at the University of Kentucky.
Washington Post: Rand Paul must now gear up for Senate reelection fight
GOP leaders in Washington, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), had grown increasingly concerned about how little Paul was raising for his Senate race while running for president. Paul raised just $156,000 for the reelection race at home in the third quarter, a paltry sum that would not be enough for a competitive House race.
…State Democrats monitoring Paul’s standing back home provided The Washington Post polling last fall showing his approval rating had fallen from 44 percent to 36 percent during his presidential race to that point. More ominously, Paul’s base had shrunk: Just 9 percent of Kentucky voters had a “very favorable” view of Paul, a smaller percentage than had such a view of President Obama.
RON JOHNSON HAS AN IDENTITY PROBLEM. The Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes that Ron Johnson has a very real problem: Wisconsinites do not know who he is.
Charles Franklin, the Marquette pollster, said the numbers on Johnson show “that activity in Washington including in media doesn’t necessarily translate into visibility back home. I’d speculate Ron Johnson has had more television time on cable news in the first five years than the average senator does. But that kind of national attention or national media attention won’t necessarily be picked up by the folks back home, or at least 41 percent of them.”
“How much work did Ron Johnson do in those first couple of years in terms of coming back to Wisconsin? That’s a valid observation,” said Brandon Scholz, a lobbyist and Republican operative. “He probably could have done more (to connect with state voters.)
…AND THIS WON’T HELP: VOTE VETS LAUNCHES RADIO AD ON JOHNSON’S FAILED VETERANS’ RECORD. TheMilwaukee Journal Sentinel reports that Vote Vets launched a radio ad revealing how Johnson’s office ignored a whistleblower who flagged issues at the Tomah Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Listen to the ad here.
DSCC OUTRAISES NRSC BY $10M IN 2015. The DSCC raised $5.1 million in December, beating the NRSC by more than $2 million for the month and outraising the Republican committee ten out of 12 months in the year. The DSCC raised $51.6 million in 2015, outraising the NRSC by more than $10 million in 2015.
The Hill: Senate Dems outraise GOP in 2015
Roll Call: DSCC Raised More in 2015 Than Senate Republican Group
Morning Consult: DSCC Out-raises NRSC by $10 Million
Politico’s Morning Score: CASH RACE – DSCC outraises NRSC in December
National Journal Hotline: NRSC Raised $2.95M to DSCC’s $5.1M in December
WHAT IS EVEN HAPPENING AT THE NRSC? We know they’re freaked out about the possibility of Trump or Cruz, but they’re stillfundraising off of the candidates through “congratulations” emails… We took the liberty of using what some Republicans have said about Cruz to “sign” his card. And, pro-trip to all committees; if you’re going to buy a mascot to mock an opposing candidate, make sure they’re made in the U.S.A. and not China.
NEW CANDIDATE CONSIDERS ENTERING FLORIDA PRIMARY AS INFIGHTING CONTINUES. Yet another GOP candidate is considering joining the already crowded Florida GOP primary. Shark Tank reports that conservative radio host Dan Bongino’s candidacy is “imminent.” Meanwhile, the candidates already in the race posted lackluster fourth quarter fundraising numbers across the board, providing yet another opportunity to clash. Florida Politics said that the primary race is “getting chippy” and the Tampa Bay Times highlighted the latest round of infighting between Ron DeSantis and David Jolly. Programming note: this primary isn’t until August.
Tampa Bay Times: Ron DeSantis Scoffs at rivals’ money-raising, David Jolly calls him a liar
Republican U.S. Senate David Jolly tried to bury his weak latest fundraising report, by releasing it on a Sunday. Ron DeSantis responded… “One of our opponents has already given up on fundraising or running a serious campaign while the other continues to struggle.” …
And the David Jolly campaign responded too, even tossing in an attack video for good measure:
“Ron DeSantis is bragging about how much money he raised during the same period ISIS was terrorizing Paris and San Bernardino,” said Max Goodman, Jolly’s Political Director. “Sadly, it’s the only part of his political career he attends to, as evidenced by his recent missed votes to hang out with mega donors and college kids in Vegas.”
#COSEN GOP CAMPAIGNS OFF TO ROCKY START. The good thing about having 13 candidates in a primary is that at least one campaign has to be going well, right? Well that doesn’t seem to be the case in the GOP’s Colorado primary. Robert Blaha’s campaign isfocusing their messaging on toilets and Hitler, and Jon Keyser bombed his first radio interview since declaring his candidacy, dodging questions on basic policy.
IN THE STATES
ARIZONA – McCain and Kirkpatrick are in a statistical tie, leading the Tucson Sentinel to write that “Kirkpatrick has a shot at unseating McCain.” McCain allies are so spooked, another dark money group has gone on the air with positive ads to prop up the increasingly vulnerable five-term incumbent.
MORE ARIZONA: Check out this must-read interview Ann Kirkpatrick where she clearly highlights the contrasts between her and out-of-touch John McCain.
ILLINOIS — Tammy Duckworth nabbed another key endorsement, this time by the Illinois Federation of Teachers. The endorsement praised Duckworth for being a tireless fighter for communities across the state.
MISSOURI – Jason Kander spoke at the South St. Joseph Rotary Club to speak about his plan to grow businesses through homegrown entrepreneurship and getting veterans involved in small business. He discussed his own military experience in Afghanistan. WATCH coveragehere and here.
NEW HAMPSHIRE – Governor Hassan wrote in an op-ed that the two bipartisan bills she signed into law to address the heroin and opioid crisis were the result of lawmakers coming together “across party lines, and that’s exactly what we must continue to do.”
NEVADA – Catherine Cortez Masto brought in $1.3 million in Q4 and has $2 million on hand – an impressive haul fueled by small donors: 93 percent of her donations were less than $200.
MORE NEVADA – No surprise here, the NRSC attack ad against Catherine Cortez Masto was rated “mostly false” by PolitiFact. PolitiFact slammed the ad as “highly misleading.”
NORTH CAROLINA –The Durham People’s Alliance PAC, a progressive grassroots community organization, endorsed Deborah Ross, citing her strong record of advocating for North Carolina
OHIO –The University of Toledo College Democrats and the University of Cincinnati College Democrats endorsed Ted Strickland, citing his advocacy for students in their decisions.
PENNSYLVANIA — Pat Toomey sent out a fundraising email on Monday night that featured of picture of a Pennsylvania landscape… but it was actually a picture of Ukraine. Looks like Toomey has become so out-of-touch with Pennsylvania that he can’t even recognize what it looks like. Yikes.
TWEET OF THE WEEK – This week’s Tweet of the Week goes to Yahoo’s Jon Ward for saying what we’re all thinking about Rob Portman’s political stunt on TPP: @jonward11: “Rob Portman is opposing TPP trade deal. That’s … hilarioushttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/02/04/portman-to-vote-no-on-trade-deal/?wpmm=1&wpisrc=nl_daily202 …”
