WITH ONE YEAR TO GO, DEMOCRATS ON TRACK TO WIN BACK MAJORITY. This weekend marks one year until the 2016 elections, and the DSCC released a memo highlighting the strong position Democrats are in to take back the majority after nearly a year of strong fundraising, top-tier candidate recruitment, and a dysfunctional GOP-led Senate. Read more on Democrats’ path to the majority below:
The Hill: Memo: Dems Bullish On 2016 Senate Chances
The Senate Democrats’ campaign arm is touting its fundraising edge, strong recruitment class and Senate dysfunction as proof that the Senate majority is well within the party’s grasp.
The DSCC has outraised its Republican counterpart, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC), by about $5.5 million during the 2016 cycle according to Federal Election Commission disclosures. The memo goes on to praise the fundraising hauls by endorsed candidates in Wisconsin, Illinois, Arkansas and Florida.
The memo notes that the party wooed its top candidates in Nevada, Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin and New Hampshire, and that the recruiting class is more diverse than ever before.
REPUBLICANS MUST HATE TOP TEN LISTS THIS YEAR. Roll Call took note of Democrats’ strong chances to retake the Senate today when they published their list of the top 10 most vulnerable senators. Spoiler alert: Nine out of the ten of them are Republicans. Big trouble for the NRSC…
Roll Call: The 10 Most Vulnerable Senators
Mark Kirk: “Nobody on the ballot next year has a tougher re-election fight ahead than Kirk…”
Ron Johnson: “…Johnson’s path to re-election doesn’t look easy… and he’s trailing Feingold in recent polls and fundraising.”
Pat Toomey: “But not since 1988 has a Republican presidential candidate won the Keystone State. And that’s bad news for Toomey, who just barely won this seat in 2010 — despite the GOP wave.”
Kelly Ayotte: “Ayotte’s path to re-election got a lot tougher when Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan announced her Senate bid in October.”
Rob Portman: “Portman starts the election behind in polling against his likely Democratic opponent: former Gov. Ted Strickland.”
John McCain: “McCain has a strong challenger in Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick…”
Roy Blunt: “Perhaps no one besides Kander has a more compelling case against Blunt. He served in Afghanistan while Blunt was in Congress; he fought for an ethics overhaul in Missouri while Blunt’s family picked up new lobbying contracts; and, unlike Blunt, Kander is one of the country’s youngest elected officials.”
Rand Paul: “Paul — who has focused much of his attention on his long-shot presidential bid rather than his re-election effort – could find himself trying to make up ground next year.”
KOCH BROTHERS NAMING NAMES AND PROMISING TO SPEND BIG. Shadowy, outside money has already flooded into states across the map at unprecedented rates, and as the GOP continues to panic about their fragile majority, it looks like it won’t let up anytime soon. Today, Politico reports that billionaire Koch brothers are pledging to spend big to prop up some of the GOP’s most vulnerable incumbents – Kelly Ayotte, Ron Johnson, Rob Portman and Pat Toomey. Earlier this week, Charles Koch told MSNBC that he “expects something in return” for his money, so it’s not all that surprising that each of these Senators has voted with the Koch brothers at least 80 percent of the time.
KOCH <3 AYOTTE. The interview with the Koch front group AFP was particularly enlightening on Kelly Ayotte, who is currently trying to rewrite her record of voting for special interests over New Hampshire families. The Kochs missed that memo, though, and took pains to praise her “really good voting record on a lot of pretty tough issues.”
BOOZMAN’S BAD WEEK. It was a bad week for John Boozman in Arkansas. Fresh off Q3 when Conner Eldridge outraised Boozman despite being in the race for just 3 weeks, national Republicans have started panicking about Boozman. CNN wrote on the GOP’s Arkansas tailspin this week, reporting that the NRSC even warned Boozman that they won’t be spending on his behalf if his reelection bid looks to be in trouble.
CNN: GOP warns Arkansas senator: Step it up or risk losing a key seat
…The 64-year-old Republican, facing re-election to a second term next year, has prompted growing concern from party elders who fear he risks a repeat of past election debacles — where GOP candidates in Indiana, South Dakota, Kansas and Mississippi ran shoddy campaigns, forcing a last-ditch rescue attempt by the party establishment to try to save an endangered seat.
…The National Republican Senatorial Committee has also flatly warned Boozman that it will not spend a penny in Arkansas if he gets into trouble, according to several people familiar with the situation.
…The source of the concern stems from a well-funded Democratic opponent, Connor Eldridge, a former U.S. attorney for the Western District of Arkansas, who officially joined the race this week. Through September, Eldridge reported pulling in more than $403,000 through September — outraising Boozman, who reported $359,000 in receipts in the last reporting period.
…Already, the GOP is at major risk of losing two seats — one in Illinois and another in Wisconsin, and several more could also fall into Democratic hands, including in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio. Only two Democratic seats are at risk of flipping — Nevada and Colorado — but Republicans have suffered recruiting failures in Colorado that make their chances of knocking off Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet increasingly difficult.
The DSCC proudly endorsed Conner Eldridge this week:
“From working on his family’s farm to protecting Arkansans as U.S. Attorney, Conner Eldridge knows how to fight for Arkansas and will do exactly that once elected to the Senate. Conner has spent time in the private sector working in small business and will bring an important perspective to how we can boost our economy. After working to keep Arkansas communities safe from violent crime and drug trafficking, it’s clear Conner is an outstanding public servant who is the best candidate to win next fall, and we’re proud to support Conner in his campaign.”
EVEN GOP SENATORS AGREE…THE MAJORITY ISN’T WORKING. Just a few months after the Republican majority’s infighting and dysfunction retired a Senator from its own party, a freshman GOP Senator is publicly lamenting just how unproductive the GOP-led Senate has been this year. Republican Ben Sasse of Nebraska admitted on Morning Joe that the past year in the GOP-controlled Senate has been “the least productive year of [his] life so far.” Yikes. If the NRSC wants to keep claiming that “The Majority Is Working,” they should probably check in with their own Senators first.
AYOTTE’S DESPERATE RECORD RE-WRITE. Kelly Ayotte has been carefully attempting to re-write her record on issues from women’s health to the environment. The New Republic wrote today about how craven her re-write on the environment has been:
“But for much of her first Senate term, she was hard to distinguish from conservative Republicans who do not think climate change is real, or worth addressing. During her 2010 campaign, she signed an Americans for Prosperity pledge to vote against pro-climate legislation like cap-and-trade, and she received regular positive ratings from the group on her conservative voting record (and low ratings from environmentalists).
…What inspired her dramatic shift? For starters, Ayotte has a formidable opponent next year—Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan, …Ayotte would only embrace the issue if she thought it could help her politically.”
ROY BLUNT’S LOBBYIST LOYALTIES. Last week, Senator Roy Blunt’s wife was named one of the top corporate lobbyists in Washington for the fourth year in a row. Blunt’s deep lobbyist ties are no secret – he even hired his lobbyist son to manage his reelection campaign – but his family ties raise questions about who he’s actually looking out for. Earlier this summer, Blunt fought to block recommendations from the Dietary Guidelines Advisory Committee in a move that raised eyebrows with his wife lobbying for the processed foods industry. And this week, the Kansas City Star reported on Blunt’s opposition to truck safety rules that would curb fatalities and injuries from big rig crashes – noting that Blunt has received $229,000 in campaign contributions from the trucking industry in the past six years. With a pattern of blatant conflicts of interest, Blunt has made it abundantly clear that he doesn’t have Missouri’s best interests at heart.
PAUL’S STOCK PLUMMETING. If it’s another week, it’s another bad Rand Paul story. This week, the National Journal wrote on Paul’s “depressed political standing back home,” noting his absenteeism from the state and dismal approval numbers. As his approval ratings continue to plummet at home in Kentucky, GOP consultants are panicking about Paul’s bleak reelection chances.
MEANWHILE, PAUL COMES UNHINGED ON SENIORS, STUDENTS. Earlier in the week, Paul compared efforts to make college more affordable to heroin addiction. A few days later, he doubled down on his plan to cut Social Security and even called those who have stood to protect the program “wimps.” Rand Paul is already treating the Kentucky Senate seat as a consolation prize for his likely failed presidential bid, but his latest statements underscore just how out of touch he is with Kentuckians.
IN THE STATES
FLORIDA – FLORIDA TEAMSTERS ENDORSE MURPHY. After big endorsements from sitting US Senators last week, the Florida Teamsters endorsed Patrick Murphy this week, touting his strong support for working families.
ARIZONA – MCCAIN’S PRIMARY PROBLEMS HIT THE ROAD. John McCain’s primary challenger, Kelli Ward, launched a statewide tour this week that promises to keep the pressure on Senator McCain. Ward isn’t holding back any criticism of McCain’s failure to represent Arizona.
OHIO – PORTMAN CRITICIZED FOR OPPOSING EQUAL PAY LEGISLATION. Last week, Rob Portman tried to tout his support from women in an attempt to distract from his record voting against equal pay legislation and supporting reckless efforts to defund Planned Parenthood. But, the Ohio Democratic Women’s Caucus wasn’t going to let him get away with that. They challenged Portman to return 23% of his paycheck since Ohio women still earn just 77 cents on the dollar compared to men.
TWEET OF THE WEEK: This week’s tweet goes to Republican Senator Ben Sasse, who reminded us all that the GOP majority isn’t working: @SenSasse: “The Senate has a really important job but we’re not doing it right now. http://bit.ly/1HtoYvb”
